Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Prediction markets show 99-100% consensus for no change at the March 2026 FOMC meeting
The Fed has held rates at 3.50%-3.75% with no signals of imminent movement
FOMC statement resolution on March 17-18 makes this a near-certain outcome
Bears Say
A surprise cut remains a tail risk, with some markets showing 1% odds for a 25bps decrease
Macro shocks before March 18 could force an emergency policy shift
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