Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
December 31 deadline provides ~9 months for negotiations, giving ample runway for a deal
Active diplomacy is ongoing: Trump's 15-point proposal and Iran's counterproposal show both sides are at the table
Suspected insider trading activity on ceasefire markets signals those with inside knowledge are betting YES
Bears Say
Price has dropped 6.5% in a week as Trump threatens to obliterate Iran's oil infrastructure including Kharg Island
Iran's counterproposal demands reparations and Hormuz sovereignty — positions far from US terms
Highly correlated hedge market 'US strikes Iran' at -0.85 coefficient reflects escalation, not resolution, as base case