Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
YES is priced at 100%, reflecting the ceasefire is already confirmed as fact
$15.7M liquidity and $33.6M 24h volume confirm strong market consensus
1d price jump of +13.5% signals a decisive resolution event occurred
Bears Say
At 100% YES, there is zero remaining upside and no bear case to trade
Any residual NO position is purely speculative with no market support
Complete price certainty leaves no room for meaningful counterargument
Recent News
Ceasefire Bets: Israel-Hezbollah Market Dominates
startuphub.ai•Apr 17, 2026
Lebanese MPs push for demilitarized Beirut amid ceasefire ...
mexc.com•Apr 17, 2026
Hezbollah admits deliberate war entry, complicating ...
mexc.com•Apr 17, 2026
Lebanon accuses Israel of ceasefire violations amid market ...
mexc.co•Apr 17, 2026
Market Description
This market tracks whether Israel and Hezbollah will reach a ceasefire agreement by a specified deadline. Currently at 0% probability, the market reflects near-zero confidence in an imminent resolutio…