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Geopolitics
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
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Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Ongoing US-Iran tensions over nuclear program keep conflict risk non-zero
Any rapid escalation in the Middle East could trigger emergency war powers
Low price means even small probability shifts create large percentage gains
Bears Say
Price trending down with no news catalysts supporting escalation
Formal war declarations are historically rare; US hasn't declared war since 1942
Diplomatic and economic pressure remain the dominant US policy tools toward Iran
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Market Description
This market asks whether the US will make an official congressional declaration of war against Iran by a specified date. At just 7% probability, markets see this as highly unlikely, reflecting histori…