Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Sustained diplomatic pressure from the US could accelerate a formal ceasefire deal
War fatigue on both sides may force negotiated pauses before the deadline
Any surprise summit or back-channel agreement could rapidly shift odds
Bears Say
Market prices YES at just 1%, reflecting near-consensus that this won't happen
Price has fallen 3.6% in a week, showing strong momentum toward NO
No related news signals any imminent breakthrough in peace negotiations
Recent News
Market Description
This market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a formal ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2026. At just 1% YES, traders see a ceasefire as nearly impossible within this timeframe, reflecting th…