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Fed Decision in July?

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Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls Say

Fed has maintained rates steady as it waits for more inflation data clarity

Tariff-driven uncertainty argues for caution — premature cuts could re-ignite inflation

84% consensus strongly favors no change in July as the base case

Bears Say

Rapid economic deterioration could force the Fed to cut in July even without full inflation confirmation

Market expectations could shift sharply if June employment data disappoints significantly

Historical precedent: Fed moved faster than expected in 2019 amid slowing growth