Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
At 97%, market consensus is overwhelmingly that conflict ends before Dec 31
Strong upward momentum (+4.9% weekly) confirms growing trader conviction
Dec 31 is the final day of the year, leaving maximum time for resolution
Bears Say
Residual 3% risk reflects tail scenarios of prolonged escalation into 2025
No supporting news context makes it hard to confirm current ceasefire status
High liquidity ($0.8M) means informed sellers could still move this market
Recent News
Market Description
This market tracks whether the Iran-Israel/US conflict will be fully resolved by a specified deadline. Currently at 0% probability, the market reflects near-zero confidence in a near-term resolution g…