Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
"0 cuts" leads at 40% as the Fed holds amid tariff-driven inflation uncertainty
Core PCE remains above target, blocking rate cuts and keeping the Fed on hold
Powell has signaled extended patience — zero cuts through 2026 is a credible base case
Bears Say
Recession risk is building; economic weakness would force at least one cut before year-end
40% for zero cuts implies 60% for at least one cut — the bear case for this outcome is strong
Historical pattern: Fed rarely holds rates flat for a full year when growth is slowing
Recent News
Market Description
This multi-outcome market tracks how many Federal Reserve rate cuts will occur in 2026. "0 cuts" leads at 40%, reflecting the Fed's data-dependent patience and persistent above-target inflation. "1 cu…