Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
17% implies non-trivial historical base rate for presidential removal/resignation
Impeachment proceedings remain a tool available to a future House majority
Health or legal crises could accelerate unexpected departure from office
Bears Say
Republicans control Senate, making conviction after impeachment nearly impossible
No current credible removal mechanism is actively progressing
Market has been stable with near-zero 24h volume, signaling low conviction in YES
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Market Description
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will leave the presidency before 2027, whether through resignation, removal, or other means. Currently at 17% YES, the market reflects low but non-trivial odds …