Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Russia's Ukraine losses and domestic economic pressure create rare conditions for elite defection
Wagner Group mutiny in 2023 demonstrated that Putin's grip can be challenged by military actors
Western sanctions and battlefield setbacks could accelerate regime instability before year-end
Bears Say
Putin has survived multiple crises over 25 years in power with his security apparatus intact
FSB and Rosgvardiya maintain extreme loyalty and suppress dissent before it can organize
At 12%, the market prices a credible tail risk but still overwhelmingly favors continued rule
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Market Description
This market asks whether Vladimir Putin will cease to be President of Russia by December 31, 2026. At 12% probability, markets acknowledge a meaningful but minority chance of regime change within the …