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Polymarket
Geopolitics
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
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Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
At 10%, market still prices non-trivial risk of sudden leadership change
Health rumors and elite dissatisfaction could accelerate unexpected transitions
Historical precedent shows authoritarian regimes can collapse rapidly and without warning
Bears Say
Putin has consolidated power for 25+ years with no credible succession challenge
Security apparatus remains firmly loyal, eliminating realistic coup scenarios
Price decline over the past week signals market confidence in Putin's continuity
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Market Description
This market asks whether Vladimir Putin will leave the Russian presidency by end of 2026, through any means including death, resignation, or removal. At just 10% probability, markets see his departure…