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Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

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Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls Say

Market prices Warsh at 94% probability, reflecting overwhelming consensus

$1M liquidity with high volume signals strong informed trader conviction

No competing candidate has gained meaningful market share against Warsh

Bears Say

Price has declined 1.8% over the past week, signaling slight erosion in confidence

At 94¢, any negative development creates asymmetric downside risk

Absence of confirming news leaves room for a surprise alternative nomination