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Polymarket
Geopolitics
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
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Bulls Say
UAE shares security concerns about Iranian regional influence and nuclear ambitions
A surprise Iranian provocation could theoretically force UAE defensive action
UAE hosts major US military assets that could draw it into a broader conflict
Bears Say
UAE has pursued diplomatic normalization with Iran, reopening its embassy in 2023
At 1% probability, market has already priced in near-zero chance of UAE action
Price trending down 6.3% weekly signals no emerging catalyst for UAE military involvement
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Market Description
This market tracks whether any country will conduct military action against Iran by April 30. Currently at 0% probability, reflecting near-zero market expectation of imminent military strikes despite …