Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Trump has repeatedly threatened military action against Mexican cartels
Escalating rhetoric could accelerate timeline to year-end
12% odds may underestimate unpredictability of current administration
Bears Say
Price has fallen 10% in a week, signaling fading market confidence
No related news or triggering events support a near-term strike
A military strike on an ally within months would be historically unprecedented
Recent News
Market Description
This market asks whether the US will conduct a military strike on Mexico by a specified deadline. Currently trading at just 12% YES, the low probability reflects that while US-Mexico tensions over car…