Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Bitcoin's halving cycle historically drives new ATHs within 12-18 months post-halving
Institutional ETF inflows create sustained buying pressure toward new highs
19% probability is cheap if macro conditions remain favorable through 2026
Bears Say
Market already expects a 2025 ATH, making the 2026-specific contract redundant
Macro headwinds like rate policy could suppress risk assets well into 2026
Low volume signals weak conviction in this outcome at current pricing
Recent News
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Market Description
This market tracks when Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high. Currently at 0% probability, the market reflects extreme skepticism about the specified timeframe, suggesting traders believe BTC is unl…