Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
2025 already saw the largest U.S. measles outbreak in decades, setting a high baseline
Declining vaccination rates and anti-vaccine sentiment create sustained transmission risk
At 98¢, market has near-unanimous confidence this threshold will be exceeded
Bears Say
Public health emergency response could drive rapid vaccination campaigns cutting spread
2k cases is an extremely high bar that would require sustained multi-state outbreaks
Zero recent volume suggests price may be stale and not reflect latest outbreak data
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Market Description
This market tracks whether measles cases in the U.S. will reach a significant threshold in 2026, amid ongoing concerns about declining vaccination rates. Currently at 18% YES, the market reflects that…