Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
U.S. has historically used military threats against Venezuela over oil and political crises
Escalating regional instability could accelerate intervention timelines
Trump administration has previously floated military options against Maduro regime
Bears Say
No related news or intelligence signals support an imminent invasion
Market price has drifted down 0.5% weekly, reflecting fading probability
A full military invasion would require massive logistics with zero current buildup evidence
Recent News
Venezuela Predictions & Real-Time Odds
polymarket.com
U.S. soldier charged with using classified intel on Maduro ...
ktla.com•Apr 25, 2026
U.S. Soldier Charged With Using Classified Information To ...
justice.gov•Apr 24, 2026
US special forces soldier used secret intel for $400K ...
nypost.com•Apr 24, 2026
Market Description
This market asks whether the U.S. will launch a military invasion of Venezuela by a specified date. Currently at 0% probability, markets see virtually no chance of direct military intervention despite…