Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
December Meeting at 60% reflects consensus that the Fed will cut at least once in 2026
By December, enough economic data will exist to justify a precautionary cut
Historical pattern: Fed often moves in Q4 when full-year data crystallizes
Bears Say
Inflation may remain sticky through December, blocking any cut
If the Fed holds at 0 cuts through 2026, the December outcome fails
40% NO reflects real probability the Fed has not acted by December
Recent News
Fed rate cut by year-end no longer the most likely outcome ...
marketwatch.com•Apr 29, 2026
Fed's Hammack opposes rate cut, aligns with hawkish ...
cryptobriefing.com•May 1, 2026
Fed split widens as rates stay on hold amid inflation fears
businessday.co.za•Apr 29, 2026
Market Expects 60% Probability of Fed Rate Cut by December
binance.com
Market Description
This multi-outcome market tracks when the Federal Reserve will make its first rate cut in 2026. December Meeting leads at 60% YES (the latest option), followed closely by October at 54% and September …