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Geopolitics
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
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Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
At 57% probability, market still favors a May 31 resolution as the base case
Iran-US nuclear negotiations create strong incentive for early deal and sanctions relief
Diplomatic momentum could accelerate a quick announcement before month-end
Bears Say
Sharp price decline of 24.5% over the past week signals eroding confidence in this timeline
No supporting news articles suggest negotiations are near a breakthrough
Low liquidity ($0.3M) makes the 57% price less reliable as a true probability signal
Recent News
Iran-linked ships cross US blockade line in Gulf of Oman
cryptobriefing.com•Apr 17, 2026
Polymarket traders are pricing a 76% probability that the ...
facebook.com
Polymarket Prediction Market Puts 54% Odds on Hormuz ...
actionnetwork.com•Apr 17, 2026
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
polymarket.com•Apr 12, 2026
Market Description
This market asks whether Trump will announce a lifting of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Trading at 57% YES, it reflects moderate uncertainty around a high-stakes geopolitical scenario involvi…