Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
May 31 market at 59% suggests blockade resolution is expected well before June 30 deadline
Iran-linked ships breaching the blockade line signals enforcement pressure that accelerates diplomatic resolution
June 30 is the latest contract, capturing cumulative probability from all earlier resolution dates
Bears Say
Recent 24h price drop of 2% signals traders losing confidence in a pre-June 30 resolution
Iran actively testing the blockade suggests hardened positions, not imminent lifting
'All or none' framing per Fox News source implies resolution depends on a single high-stakes deal that may not materialize by June 30
Recent News
Market Description
This market asks whether Trump will announce a lifting of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. At 27% probability, markets see this as unlikely, reflecting geopolitical tensions with Iran and the st…