Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
US-Iran nuclear deal negotiations are reportedly advanced and could close before June
A ceasefire in broader military operations could restore shipping confidence without a formal deal
Iran's economic incentive to restore oil export revenue increases the probability of a May resolution
Bears Say
Normalization requires not just a deal but physical shipping infrastructure recovery and insurer confidence
Iran will extract maximum concessions before restoring Hormuz traffic flow
At 38%, there's meaningful probability but the timeline requires a deal to close within 5 weeks
Recent News
🚨 Polymarket shows a 68% chance Strait of Hormuz traffic re
US Marines seize Iranian cargo vessel in Arabian Sea ...
US intercepts Iranian ship carrying medical supplies for ...
Hormuz Traffic Timeline Pushed Back Sharply Amid New ...
Market Description
This market asks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to normal by the end of May 2026. At 38%, the market prices meaningful but below-50% probability for resolution within approximat…