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Polymarket
Geopolitics
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?
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Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Recent price uptick (+3% weekly) suggests growing market confidence
Strait of Hormuz tensions historically prompt rapid US naval responses
April 30 deadline leaves weeks for an escort incident to materialize
Bears Say
At 19¢, market assigns low probability with no confirming news catalysts
Zero trading volume signals weak conviction from informed traders
No reported naval incidents or diplomatic triggers to prompt imminent escort
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Market Description
This market asks whether the US will escort a commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by a specified deadline. Currently at 0% probability, the market reflects near-certainty this condition will …