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Polymarket
Politics
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
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Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 66% YES, reflecting broad market consensus
$518K volume signals high-conviction positioning on this outcome
Price trended up 6 cents in 24hrs and 2 cents over a week, showing momentum
Bears Say
Lula polls at 25.5% on competing platforms, threatening Bolsonaro's 2nd-place lock
Renan Santos emerging as a dark-horse candidate who could split the right-wing vote
Bid-ask spread of 0.04 indicates meaningful uncertainty remains in the market
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Market Description
This market tracks which candidate will finish second in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, determining who enters the runoff. Currently at 66% YES for Flávio Bolsonaro, with strong volu…