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US recession by end of 2026?

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Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls Say

Recent price drop may reflect overreaction, with recession risks still elevated

Fed policy lag effects historically trigger downturns 18-24 months after rate hikes

Inverted yield curve persisted long enough to historically signal recession

Bears Say

Market has repriced sharply downward, -8% in a week signals fading recession fears

At 24¢, the market already discounts recession as an unlikely base case

Low liquidity at $0.1M suggests thin conviction behind any bullish recession bets

Market Description

This market asks whether the US will enter an official recession by end of 2026. At 24% probability, markets lean against a downturn despite ongoing concerns about tariffs, inflation, and slowing grow…

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