Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
US GDP growth is slowing meaningfully under tariff headwinds and tightening credit
Consumer spending is cooling as high rates and debt loads weigh on households
Leading indicators including the yield curve have historically signaled recession at these levels
Bears Say
Strong labor market with low unemployment undermines recession case
The Fed has room to cut rates significantly if growth deteriorates sharply
At 26%, the market prices this as a minority outcome with substantial base case support for expansion
Tariff impacts are gradual, not the sudden shock that triggers recessions
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Market Description
This market asks whether the US economy will enter a recession (as defined by NBER) by the end of 2026. Currently pricing at 26% YES, the market reflects elevated but minority probability. US growth h…