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Geopolitics
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
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Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of global oil, with 15-20 ships transiting daily on average
Seasonal trade surges or geopolitical de-escalation could spike single-day traffic above 40
Historical peak traffic days have occasionally approached or exceeded this threshold
Bears Say
Market prices this at 0% probability, reflecting near-universal consensus against 40+ ships in one day
Average daily transits are well below 40, making this threshold extraordinarily rare
No news catalysts or traffic anomalies suggest an imminent surge to this level
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Market Description
This market tracks whether a specific (unnamed) number of ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by end of April. Currently trading at 0% YES, suggesting the market considers this o…