Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
SEIU-UHW union is serious sponsor: measure cleared for circulation Dec 26, 2025, already at 25% signatures by Feb 26
SurveyUSA April polling shows 63% Yes among registered voters, Berkeley IGS shows 52% Yes
Price bounced +5% in one day after 7-day decline, signaling fresh catalyst supporting ballot qualification
Bears Say
Sergey Brin alone contributed $45M to oppose the measure; total opposition funding dwarfs pro-tax side
Price fell -9.5% over 7 days before today's bounce, reflecting growing trader skepticism on qualification
LAO warns measure could reduce ongoing state income tax revenue by hundreds of millions if billionaires flee
Recent News
Market Description
This market tracks whether SEIU-UHW's proposed 5% one-time wealth tax on California billionaires will qualify for the November 2026 ballot by the June 25 deadline. At 70% YES, markets reflect serious …