Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
SpaceX IPO by December 31 at 94% reflects near-certainty of a 2026 IPO
SpaceX has publicly discussed IPO plans and investment banks are engaged
A 2026 IPO timing aligns with peak AI/tech enthusiasm and SpaceX milestones
Bears Say
6% NO reflects tail risk of delays pushing IPO to 2027+
Elon Musk has historically been unpredictable about IPO timing
Regulatory filings and market conditions could delay past December 31
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Market Description
This multi-outcome market tracks when SpaceX will complete its IPO. The market prices very high probability (91-94%) across all 2026 date targets, reflecting near-consensus that SpaceX goes public in …