Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
$1T+ SpaceX at 94% reflects near-certainty that any SpaceX IPO will open above $1T
SpaceX's Starlink revenue, government contracts, and Starship potential justify trillion-dollar valuation
The broader SpaceX IPO market consensus (94-95%) confirms $1T+ is the working assumption
Bears Say
6% NO reflects tail risk of a dramatically below-expectation IPO
A market crash between now and IPO date could crater tech valuations including SpaceX
94% is near-certain pricing, but market conditions at IPO time are unknown
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Market Description
This multi-outcome market tracks SpaceX's IPO market cap at the lowest-strike thresholds. "$1T+" leads at 94%, reflecting near-consensus that SpaceX will be worth at least $1 trillion when it goes pub…