Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Fed funds rate hitting ↓ 3.25% at 65% reflects consensus for at least one rate cut
Economic slowdown from tariffs and slowing growth will eventually force the Fed's hand
3.25% requires only 50 bps of cuts from current levels — a modest hurdle
Bears Say
Persistent inflation above target could keep the Fed on hold through 2026
Tariff-driven supply-side inflation is sticky and limits the Fed's cutting window
35% NO probability reflects real risk the Fed doesn't reach 3.25%
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Market Description
This multi-outcome market tracks how low the Federal Funds Rate will reach before 2027. The ↓ 3.25% target leads at 65% YES (modest easing scenario), followed by ↓ 3.0% at 23% (moderate easing) and ↓ …