Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
UK inflation has been persistently above target, pressuring the BoE to act
A +31.5% weekly surge in YES probability signals a major repricing of UK rate expectations
Wage growth in the UK remains elevated, sustaining inflationary pressure
Bears Say
UK economic growth is fragile, limiting the BoE's ability to hike without triggering recession
60% YES still leaves 40% NO — consensus is not overwhelming for a hike
Market may be overreacting to short-term inflation data, reversing the weekly surge
Recent News
Market Description
This market asks whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates at any point in 2026. At 60% YES, the market has sharply repriced UK rate expectations with a stunning +31.5% weekly move. UK inf…