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Polymarket
Geopolitics
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
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Bulls Say
A December 31 deadline aligns with year-end diplomatic pressure windows
41% market price reflects non-trivial probability of accelerated deal
US and European sanctions leverage could force rapid concessions
Bears Say
Price dropped 16% in one week, signaling deteriorating deal prospects
Zero 24h volume suggests market participants see little upside catalyst
Iran historically delays and conditions uranium transfer agreements
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Market Description
This market asks whether Iran will agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by a specified deadline. At just 1% probability, markets see this as nearly impossible given Iran's longstanding re…