Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
47% probability reflects substantial market confidence that crypto market structure legislation will pass
Strong bipartisan support in the current Congress creates a favorable legislative environment
Industry lobbying and pro-crypto administration stance increase probability of bill passage in 2026
Bears Say
Congressional complexity and competing legislative priorities could delay or kill the Clarity Act
53% probability against reflects historical difficulty of passing major financial legislation in a single year
Senate dynamics and potential opposition from banking sector could stall the bill through year-end
Recent News
CLARITY Act and the stablecoin yield debacle
Polymarket traders slash Clarity Act passage odds for 2026
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Predictions & Odds
A Controlled Econometric Analysis of Bitcoin Price Sensitivity
Market Description
This market tracks whether the Clarity Act for digital asset market structure will be signed into law in 2026. At 47% YES, the market prices meaningful but below-even odds, reflecting bipartisan momen…