Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
US recession risk is rising with tariff impacts and slowing growth
+6.5% weekly move in YES suggests growing market concern about tail risks
Historical precedent: Fed moved inter-meeting in 2001, 2008, and 2020 during crises
Bears Say
At 14% YES, the market prices this as a tail event, not a base case
Fed chair Powell has signaled preference for scheduled meetings over emergency action
Strong employment data reduces urgency for emergency intervention
Inter-meeting cuts signal panic and are reserved for systemic crises
Recent News
Market Description
This market asks whether the Federal Reserve will make an emergency (inter-meeting) rate cut before the end of 2026. Currently at 14% YES, the market assigns low but non-trivial probability to this ta…