Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
NASA Artemis program has targeted 2025-2026 for a crewed lunar mission
SpaceX Starship human lunar lander is being developed for this mission
A successful 2026 moon landing would be a historic achievement with strong political support
Bears Say
At 4% YES, the market has priced in the near-certain delay of any 2026 moon landing
NASA Artemis has slipped multiple times and 2026 is not the current target
Starship human lunar lander is not yet certified for crewed flight
Recent News
Market Description
This market asks whether a crewed human moon landing will occur in 2026. At 4% YES, the market treats this as a near-certain delay. NASA's Artemis program has repeatedly missed target dates, and the c…