Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
At 20¢, market prices in non-trivial risk of rapid escalation in the Gulf
Kharg handles ~90% of Iranian oil exports, making it a high-value military target
Extreme geopolitical shocks can materialize faster than markets anticipate
Bears Say
Price has fallen 7.5% this week, reflecting declining perceived probability
No news or military developments support an imminent threat to Kharg Island
Iran's air defenses and deterrence make a successful seizure of Kharg by June 30 extremely unlikely
Recent News
Market Description
This market asks whether Iran's Kharg Island, which handles ~90% of Iran's oil exports, will fall out of Iranian control. Currently at 0% probability, the market reflects near-zero likelihood of this …
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