Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Perfect games occur at a historical rate of approximately 1 every 3-4 seasons in MLB, and the 38% probability for the 2026 season reflects realistic base rate assessment
Modern pitching philosophy — higher velocity, greater strikeout rates, expanded bullpen usage — has created more opportunities for dominant individual performances
At 38%, the market is pricing slightly above the historical base rate, suggesting current pitching quality or park factors may be favorable
Bears Say
Perfect games are extraordinarily rare: out of ~2,430 regular season games per MLB season, only ~23 have occurred in the sport's entire modern history
The DH era and improved offensive data scouting make it harder for pitchers to navigate 27 consecutive batters without a base runner
62% NO reflects the historical rarity appropriately — most seasons do not feature a perfect game
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Market Description
This market resolves YES if any pitcher throws a perfect game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Currently at 38% YES, reflecting the historical rarity of perfect games against the modern era's high-…