Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Sudden health crisis or elite coup could rapidly destabilize Putin's grip on power
Prolonged Ukraine war failures have historically triggered unexpected leadership collapses
Palace intrigue among oligarchs and security services remains an ever-present wildcard
Bears Say
At 2% probability, markets already price this as near-impossible within the timeframe
Putin has consolidated control over military, FSB, and political institutions for 25 years
No credible opposition movement, elite defection, or health crisis is currently signaled
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Market Description
This market asks whether Vladimir Putin will leave the Russian presidency by June 30. At just 2% probability, markets see his removal as extremely unlikely, reflecting his firm grip on power despite o…
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