Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
A sudden health event could remove Putin from power before the June 30 deadline
Russia's Ukraine military performance could trigger elite-level coup attempt before summer
Wagner-style mutiny precedent shows surprise power challenges are possible even in tightly controlled systems
Bears Say
Putin survived the Wagner mutiny and subsequent political purges with his position fully intact
The June 30 deadline is only 2 months away — insufficient time for a credible regime change to organize
At 3%, the market prices this as an extreme tail risk with negligible informed-trader conviction
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Market Description
This market asks whether Vladimir Putin will cease to be President of Russia by June 30, 2026. At 3% probability, markets see this as an extreme tail risk within a 2-month window — while year-end depa…