Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
SpaceX has achieved major milestones in Starship reusability with catching the booster
Elon Musk has publicly targeted full Starship reusability as a 2025-2026 goal
SpaceX's track record of achieving ambitious timelines (Falcon 9 reusability) supports this
Bears Say
"Fully reusable" is a high bar — both booster and ship must be caught and reflown
SpaceX Starship development has missed previous timelines repeatedly
At 38% YES, the market prices this as below 50/50 — engineering challenges remain significant
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Market Description
This market asks whether SpaceX Starship will achieve full reusability before 2027. At 38% YES, the market prices this as a meaningful but below-50% probability. SpaceX has made dramatic progress catc…