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Geopolitics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
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Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Diplomatic back-channels could produce a rapid de-escalation agreement
Historical crises in the Strait have often resolved faster than markets expected
A surprise ceasefire or deal before May 15 cannot be ruled out entirely
Bears Say
Market pricing at 3% reflects near-consensus that normalization by May 15 is implausible
Price has dropped 14% in a week, signaling accelerating pessimism among traders
No related news suggests any diplomatic breakthrough or easing of tensions is imminent
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Market Description
This market asks whether shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, will return to normal levels by May 15. At just 3% YES, markets see near-zero chanc…