Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Extreme low-probability events can materialize through sudden health or legal crises
High 24h volume ($0.3M) suggests some speculative interest in tail-risk scenarios
Historical precedent: no modern president has been fully immune to removal mechanisms
Bears Say
At 1% probability, market has near-universally priced this outcome as impossible
No news catalysts exist to suggest imminent resignation, removal, or incapacitation
Republican Senate majority makes impeachment conviction essentially impossible by April 30
Recent News
Market Description
This market asks whether Donald Trump will leave the presidency before April 30, 2025, through resignation, removal, or other means. At just 1% probability, markets see virtually no chance of this occ…
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