Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Apple releases a new iPhone every September — the iPhone 18 in Fall 2026 is a near-certainty
90% YES reflects strong consensus that Apple's annual iPhone cadence continues without disruption
Supply chain reports consistently show Apple preparing the next iPhone generation on schedule
Bears Say
10% NO reflects tail risk of an extraordinary disruption to Apple's supply chain
A geopolitical crisis with China, natural disaster, or major supply shortage could delay iPhone 18
Apple has never missed its annual iPhone release, making this 10% essentially pure tail risk
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Market Description
This market asks whether Apple will release the iPhone 18 in 2026. At 90% YES, the market treats this as near-certain. Apple has released a new flagship iPhone every fall since 2007 without exception.…