Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
US distraction with Iran, Ukraine, and domestic politics reduces credible deterrence in Taiwan Strait
China's 2024-2025 military exercises around Taiwan suggest operational readiness is increasing
Window of opportunity closes as Taiwan's own defenses improve — Xi may choose to act before 2027
Bears Say
China's economic vulnerability to Western sanctions makes 2026 invasion irrational from cost calculus
Amphibious invasion remains the most complex military operation imaginable with observable staging requirements
At 7%, markets price this as a meaningful but low-probability event for the full-year window
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Market Description
This market asks whether China will invade Taiwan by end of 2026. At 7% probability, traders price a meaningful but minority tail risk — slightly elevated from the June 30 scenario due to the longer w…