Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
China has accelerated military exercises around Taiwan suggesting readiness for action
US distraction with Iran and Ukraine conflicts reduces deterrence credibility in Western Pacific
A surprise invasion timed for maximum diplomatic shock before June 30 cannot be ruled out
Bears Say
Amphibious invasion of Taiwan requires months of visible military staging with no current evidence
China's economic vulnerability to Western sanctions makes invasion before economic decoupling irrational
At 3%, the market prices this as an extreme tail risk over a 2-month window
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Market Description
This market asks whether China will launch a military invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026. At 3%, markets see this as an extreme tail risk within the 2-month window — an amphibious invasion requires v…