Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Satoshi's coins have sat dormant for 15+ years, making any movement historically overdue
Aging cryptographic keys face increasing quantum computing threats, incentivizing a protective move
Market at 9% implies near-zero chance, leaving asymmetric upside if circumstances change
Bears Say
Satoshi's coins have never moved since genesis, establishing an unbroken 15-year pattern
No related news or on-chain signals suggest any imminent wallet activity
Satoshi is widely presumed dead or permanently disengaged, making movement structurally unlikely
Recent News
Market Description
This market asks whether Satoshi Nakamoto will move any of their estimated 1 million+ dormant Bitcoin in 2026. At just 9% probability, the market reflects the long-standing mystery surrounding Satoshi…
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