Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
10% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about Satoshi's coins; their provenance and control remain unknown
Security researchers have raised questions about whether some Satoshi wallets may have been compromised
A movement could be triggered by private key recovery through quantum computing advances or key discovery
Bears Say
Satoshi's Bitcoin has remained completely unmoved for 15+ years across all market conditions
90% market consensus strongly favors continued dormancy based on overwhelming historical precedent
Most experts believe Satoshi is deceased or has chosen permanent non-participation
Recent News
Freezing Satoshi's Bitcoin? BIP-361 Proposal Ignites ...
Trader predicts Satoshi could move Bitcoin in 2026 - TheStreet
Freeze Satoshi's Bitcoin? The BIP-361 Proposal Ignites ...
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Prediction Market ...
Market Description
This market asks whether Satoshi Nakamoto will move any of the estimated 1 million Bitcoin held since the network's genesis in 2026. At just 10% YES, the market reflects the 15-year track record of do…