Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
US military strikes and maximum pressure campaign have weakened the regime's pillars significantly
Strait of Hormuz disruptions and economic collapse are creating unprecedented domestic unrest
Regional proxy network collapse and military losses against Israel have reduced deterrent capacity
Bears Say
Iran's Revolutionary Guard maintains a strong internal security apparatus capable of suppressing protests
Historical precedent shows authoritarian regimes can survive external military pressure indefinitely
Regime change requires broad elite defection which has not materialized despite sustained strikes
Recent News
All Bets Are On: The Rise of Prediction Markets
The chances of the Iranian regime's collapse this year have ...
Bettors place $14m on Iran-related events on Polymarket ...
A certain address bets $190000 that 'the Iranian regime will fall ...
Market Description
This market asks whether the Islamic Republic of Iran will fall from power before the end of 2026. At 20% probability, markets price a significant but minority tail risk — elevated by US military stri…