Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
US military strikes have degraded IRGC capacity and proxy networks significantly
Economic collapse and domestic unrest are converging in an unprecedented way
A leadership assassination or military coup could trigger rapid regime collapse before June 30
Bears Say
The IRGC internal security apparatus remains the key barrier to regime collapse
Historical precedent from 1979 shows regime change requires broad elite defection, not just street protests
8% reflects a genuine tail risk but the June 30 timeline is extremely compressed for full regime collapse
Recent News
In-depth Review: Which Addresses Made Hundreds of ...
binance.com•Apr 13, 2026
Iranian regime collapse odds drop to 13.5% after US ...
mexc.com•Apr 4, 2026
Will The Iranian Regime Fall By June 30? Here's What ...
sahmcapital.com•Mar 3, 2026
Explosions in Tehran boost odds of Iranian regime falling ...
fr.tradingview.com•Apr 3, 2026
Market Description
This market asks whether the Iranian regime will fall by June 30, 2026. At 8% probability, the market prices a meaningful tail risk driven by US military strikes, proxy collapse, and economic meltdown…