Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Trump has repeatedly threatened NATO withdrawal and surrounded himself with NATO skeptics
A specific NATO burden-sharing dispute with a major European member could trigger an executive withdrawal
US withdrawal from the 1987 INF Treaty showed Trump is willing to exit legacy defense agreements
Bears Say
Congress passed legislation making NATO withdrawal require Senate approval — a high bar Trump hasn't cleared
Full NATO withdrawal would require months of legal processes and is opposed by most of his advisors
At 12%, the market prices this as a meaningful tail risk but not the base case
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Market Description
This market tracks whether the US will formally withdraw from NATO by various dates. December 31 leads at 12% reflecting the year-long window for Trump's stated threat to materialize. June 30 at 4% an…