Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Flávio Bolsonaro leads all candidates at 38% as the standard-bearer of Brazil's right-wing Bolsonarista movement
The Bolsonaro name still commands strong loyalty in Brazil's conservative interior and evangelical voter base
With Jair Bolsonaro ineligible, the movement's vote consolidates behind Flávio as the clearest heir apparent
Bears Say
Lula trails by only 3 percentage points at 35%, making this effectively a two-way coin flip between left and right
News coverage centers on Lula's anti-Trump rhetoric, suggesting he retains strong leftist mobilization capacity
Brazil's history of incumbency effects favors Lula, who holds the presidency heading into 2026
Recent News
Brazil Senate rejects Lula's Supreme Court nominee, ...
Brazil Election: Brazil Elects Lula, a Leftist Former Leader ...
Brazil Congress overrides Lula veto, boosting Bolsonaro ...
Brazil's Congress overrides Lula's veto of a bill ...
Market Description
This market tracks the winner of Colombia's 2026 presidential election. Iván Cepeda Castro leads at 38% YES, with Paloma Valencia at 31.5% and Abelardo de la Espriella at 27.5%. The race is tightly co…