Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Newsom leads all candidates at 24-25%, nearly 3x his closest rivals
Democrats favor 2028 with 59% party win odds, boosting nominee value
Wide-open field with no incumbent means frontrunner status is durable
Bears Say
25% implies 3-in-4 chance he loses the nomination to a crowded field
AOC, Ossoff, Harris, and Shapiro collectively represent comparable competition
Newsom's California brand faces structural resistance in a national primary