Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
92% consensus locks in the no-change scenario for June — the highest conviction bet in Macro
Fed has repeatedly signaled patience and data-dependence through mid-2026
Core PCE above target with tariff uncertainty makes June cuts virtually impossible
Bears Say
A catastrophic May or June jobs report could force the Fed's hand in June
Financial stress scenarios from credit market seizure could prompt emergency action
8% NO still reflects non-trivial tail risk of unexpected Fed action
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Market Description
This multi-outcome market tracks the Federal Reserve's June 2026 FOMC meeting decision. "No change" prices at 92% YES — the strongest consensus bet in the Macro category. A 25 bps cut at 4% and hike a…