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Presidential Election Winner 2028

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Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls Say

JD Vance leads the general election market at 18.9%, leveraging his incumbent VP status and MAGA coalition

As the frontrunner in both the primary and general, Vance benefits from party consolidation heading into 2028

Price is supported by strong $36.58M liquidity, reflecting deep market conviction in his candidacy

Bears Say

The 2028 general election is wide open with Gavin Newsom at 17.3% and Rubio at 10.6% as credible challengers

Vance has not yet won the Republican primary; his general election odds depend on successfully navigating that first

Historical trend: early frontrunners in 4-year-out prediction markets often see significant repricing