Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
As incumbent VP, Vance has the strongest structural advantage of any 2028 Republican candidate at 39.5% YES
Positive daily momentum (+0.3%) and massive $36.58M liquidity confirm deep market conviction
Vance is the direct heir to Trump's MAGA coalition, giving him institutional and grassroots backing
Bears Say
At 39.5%, over 60% of the market does not expect Vance to win the nomination, showing significant doubt
Historical pattern: incumbent VPs who run face serious primary challenges (Pence 2024)
Rubio at 20% and other challengers mean Vance must consolidate support through a contested primary
Recent News
Market Description
This market tracks who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. J.D. Vance leads at 39.5% YES as the incumbent VP, followed by Marco Rubio at 20.3% and Tucker Carlson at 5.0%, with the ra…